Ultimo Reporte Sobre ENSO de NOAA
Sinopsis: Se espera que La Niña contin�e hasta la primavera del Hemisferio Norte 2012.
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Ultimo Reporte Sobre ENSO del IRI
19 January 2011.
NOTICE: This "IRI ENSO Update/Forecast" is being supplanted by
the NOAA/Climate Prediction
Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued early in the month.
The IRI Technical ENSO Update is still issued by the IRI near the middle of the month, but
the probabilistic ENSO forecast created at mid-month is now
an objective rendering directly from the IRI/CPC
ENSO prediction plume, using equal weighting for all plume models and using a Gaussian
probability density function centered on the multi-model mean prediction. Probabilistic
ENSO forecasts having a possibly beneficial subjective component, such as an adjustment when the forecasters
believe the models may have biases or may be missing something that occurred very recently,
are made jointly by IRI and CPC at the beginning of the month and are accessible from the NOAA/
Climate Prediction Center's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. These early month probabilities are to be
considered the official CPC/IRI probabilistic ENSO forecast product. The thresholds for El
Niño and La Niña are plus and minus 0.45 C Nino3.4 SST anomalies, respectively,
as used by NOAA/Climate Prediction Center, rather than the seasonally varying quartile-based
values used by IRI through 2011. The implication of the approximately half-degree anomaly thresholds
is that non-neutral ENSO conditions are expected to occur with greater than 25% frequency during northern
autumn and early winter, and slightly less than 25% frequency during northern spring and early summer.
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Típico Impacto de La Niña
